Exploring the Results and Voter Trends of the New Hampshire GOP Primary

With the New Hampshire state primary concluding on Tuesday night, the race for the GOP nominee is essentially settled, as Donald Trump emerged victorious with over 54 percent of the votes as of Wednesday morning. In second place is Nikki Haley, who secured just over 43 percent. Despite her loss, Haley took the stage in front of her supporters to convey her determination to persist in the race for the GOP nominee. She announced her commitment to stay in the competition for the South Carolina primary on February 24th.

via NBC News

The decision for Nikki Haley to remain in the race hinges on the optimism that South Carolinians will rally behind their former state governor. South Carolina operates as an open primary state, allowing residents to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary, irrespective of their party affiliation. This strategic approach mirrors Nikki Haley's earlier strategy in New Hampshire, another open primary state.

According to an NBC News exit poll, 50 percent of the voters identified as either Democrats (6) or Independents (44), with Independents overwhelmingly favoring Haley at over 70 percent. Conversely, among Republican voters, over 70 percent rallied behind Trump in the primary.

This poll reveals both positive and negative aspects depending on the candidate in question.

via NBC News

For Donald Trump, this poll reinforces his dominant support among more grounded, conservative voters. Since his presidential victory in 2016, Donald Trump has almost become synonymous with the Republican Party, amassing a dedicated fanbase of voters and political allies. Most of the GOP nominees who dropped out of the 2024 presidential race have endorsed Donald Trump, including Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, and most recently, Ron DeSantis. While this overwhelming support is considered positive in a smaller setting, a growing issue becomes evident in this poll: Donald Trump lacks similar support among the general voter.

At the end of the day, becoming the GOP nominee is not the main goal. Donald Trump has spent most of his campaign differentiating himself from his Republican opponents and absorbing supporters of those opponents once they drop out of the race. However, he has not made significant efforts to attract independent and moderate-liberal voters.

While there is still plenty of time before the general election to address this, Trump's potential criminal charges will likely be a focal point of the Democrats' campaign if he secures the GOP nomination. This could hinder support from general voters for the former President. Now that Trump appears to be only a few weeks away from winning the nomination, it's crucial to appeal as much as possible to a wider range of voters.

For Nikki Haley, this graphic must be bittersweet to see, as there is overwhelming support for her among independents and liberals, but not even one-third of support among Republicans. If this were a general election poll, it would be seen as a major win for her campaign. However, it's specifically for the Republican primary, which typically sees lower voter turnout.

Unfortunately, due to this, I don't see a path for her to win the GOP nomination, as not enough Republicans are turning out to the polls. However, Haley remains adamant about continuing her candidacy into her home state of South Carolina, where she believes she will gain more votes due to the recognition of her achievements as the state's governor from 2011 to 2017.

This is where one of two things will happen: Nikki Haley's hopes will come true, and many liberals, independents, and moderate Republicans will give her the vote to put up a good fight. Alternatively, Trump will continue to dominate with the support of GOP voters. If the second option remains true after the South Carolina primary, I foresee Nikki Haley suspending her campaign before Super Tuesday, effectively ending the GOP nominee race.